Our Perfomance This Period

November 16th - 30th 2009

86% Greater Gain in 11 Months than the S&P 500

 

Our Aggressive Growth Portfolio (the blue line) maintained a 3 month lead on the growth of S&P 500 (the red line)this month as shown by the chart to the right.



 

RISK: Second Half of November was Volatile

 

Both the S&P 500 and our Aggressive Growth portfolio and experienced drawdowns this period. A seesaw market period is upon us; this type of market can turn either up or down very quickly.

 

Smaller drawdowns indicate the investment manager's ability to cut risk.



Click the image to englarge

Crescive Financial compared to S&P 500 over the past 11 months. Last fifteen days are highlighted in yellow.


Portfolio Changes

In this uncertain market, we have moved to a moderate allocation position to protect our client's assets while the market values fluctuate. We adjust our portolio's allocation to match our understanding of the current market conditions and to protect our client's investment accounts. So far this year, our portfolios have changed 41 times, 28 of which have resulted in account gains. Our average gain is 3.7% during a fifteen day period; our average loss is -2.36%. Below is a recap of the changes we made this period to protect the accounts of our Aggressive Growth portfolio. (We take the same care with our other portfolios, but their percentage changes are not shown here.)

Date of Portfolio Update         Account Change
11-19-2009                                        -1.4%



Our Barometer

The S&P 500 Index and the other US equity markets have been nearly flat for the last two weeks. Currently, a war is going on between the market's Bulls (who want the markets to rise) and the Bears (who are working to drive values down). This market war will end. But how will it end? No one knows.

If the Bears win in the short term, the market will fall, perhaps very fast and a long way, or perhaps only a short distance - it's very difficult to tell. Since March 9th of this year there has not been a significant market correction. This can be unhealthly and may speed up any market action.

If the Bulls win, the markets will continue to rise as they have since March. We think that, if the markets do rise, it will be slower, with less speed than any market downturn.

Avoiding significant account losses is one of our key portfolio objectives. Each day we watch the market looking to avoid significant portfolio losses.



The Dow Jone's Rise since March 2009 Explained

Look at this comparison chart of the Dow Jones Industrial Average's rise since March 2009 and the falling value of the US Dollar Index. At least for 2009, it is clearly showing an inverse (an opposite effect) relationship between these two indicators. It seems to indicate that as long as the US Dollar Index continues to fall the Dow Jones Industrial Average may continue to rise.



What will the future hold? Will this inverse relationship hold continue to hold? We do not know. This is just one indicator that Crescive Financial uses to guide us as we make our investing decisions.




Click to enlarge
Crescive Financial's performance compared to three leading indexes

Aggressive Growth: +103.6%
NASDAQ Composite:  +32.8%
S&P 500:                 +17.6%
Berkshire Hathaway:   +0.6%




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Crescive Financial does not guarantee any investment result. Past performance does NOT predict future results.